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Lines the plan windows' official percentages (HA sensors from the homelab's claude-usage-notifier) up against the account's archived token spend, priced at list price, and fits dollars-per-1% for the 5h and week windows plus a Fable multiplier. docs/usage-calibration.md records the method and the 2026-10 calibration (1% week ≈ $22, 1% 5h ≈ $5.6, Fable ×1.75, no separate Fable bucket) and notes that pricing.py overstates the newest models. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
84 lines
4.3 KiB
Markdown
84 lines
4.3 KiB
Markdown
# What 1 % of a Claude plan window is worth
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Claude Code's `/usage` shows how full the subscription's windows are (rolling
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5 h, 7-day week), as whole percentages. The transcripts show what was spent, in
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tokens. `scripts/usage-calibration.py` lines the two up and fits the exchange
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rate, so a dollar figure on the dashboard can be read as "% of my week", and
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the plan's ceiling can be expressed in tokens.
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```bash
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uv run scripts/usage-calibration.py # personal seat, last 9 days
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uv run scripts/usage-calibration.py --since 2026-09-13 --json /tmp/cal.json
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uv run scripts/usage-calibration.py --account work --prefix sensor.claude_work_usage
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```
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## Inputs
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- **Usage %**: Home Assistant long-term statistics (hourly min/max) of the
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sensors that the homelab's `claude-usage-notifier` pushes (`<prefix>_5h`,
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`_week`, `_fable`). The script reads the recorder SQLite db read-only, so it
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goes back to the sensors' creation, beyond the 10-day state history.
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- **Tokens**: the account's conversations listed by `/api/conversations?account=`
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(the backend resolves each conversation's account), parsed from the archive,
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subagents included. Records are de-duplicated on (message id, request id) and
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priced at **list price** (the script's own table; see "Pricing" below).
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## Method
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The data is binned by hour. A window's % only rises between resets, so each
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bin's increase is the usage spent in it. Bins that contain a reset are dropped,
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and so are 5 h bins above 100 % (overage). The fit is `Δ% = k·cost + c`, by
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non-negative least squares. `c` soaks up usage the archive can't see
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(claude.ai, the desktop app, a Mac that isn't paired as a worker). It came out
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at ≈ 0 once both Macs were paired.
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Unweighted list-price dollars leave a drift. Through a Fable-heavy week the
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cumulative $/% climbed from $13.5 to $20 as the mix moved to Opus. A **Fable
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multiplier** removes it. It is chosen by grid search on the combined R² of the
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5 h and week fits, and with it the cumulative ratio stays flat at $21–23/%.
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Other weightings were tested and lost: cache reads free, cache reads at 0.1×
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input, cache reads at 1× input, Opus 5.5 priced as Opus 5, and raw token
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counts.
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Use 1 h bins. With 3 h bins most 5 h resets fall inside a bin, which then gets
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dropped, and the 5 h fit collapses.
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## Calibration — personal Max plan (€200/month), 2026-10-12
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Window: 2026-10-04 18:00 → 2026-10-12 (Opus 5.5 / Fable 5.1 era), 1 h bins.
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Intervals are 90 % CIs from a 300-draw day-block bootstrap.
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| | API $ at list price | tokens at the real Opus 5.5 mix¹ |
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|---|---|---|
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| 1 % of the **5 h** window | **$5.6** [5.4–6.8] | ≈ 17 Mtok |
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| 1 % of the **week** | **$22.1** [21.1–24.6] | ≈ 68 Mtok |
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| Fable multiplier | **×1.75** [1.6–2.5]: 1 % week ≈ $13 of Fable 5.1 | ≈ 14 Mtok of Fable¹ |
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| full 5 h window | ≈ $560 ≈ 25 % of a week | |
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| full week | ≈ $2,200 | ≈ 6.8 Gtok |
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| 100 % of every week for a month (×4.35) | ≈ $9,600 (≈ $5,700 if all Fable) | ≈ 30 Gtok |
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¹ Agentic Claude Code traffic is 98 % cache reads by tokens. On Opus 5.5 they
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are about 61 % of the dollars, cache writes 32 % and output 8 %. The same 1 % of
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the week buys ≈ 1.1 M Opus 5.5 output tokens, or 5.5 M fresh input, or 110 M
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cache reads.
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- **No separate Fable bucket.** The `seven_day_<model>` key never appeared in
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the status line's `rate_limits` from 2026-07-17 to 2026-10-12, despite heavy
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Fable 5 and Fable 5.1 use. Fable draws on the same 5 h and week windows, about
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1.75× faster per list-price dollar than Opus 5.5.
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- **The week binds, not the 5 h window.** A full 5 h window is ≈ 25 % of the
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week, and a week has 33.6 of them.
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- **Earlier eras differ.** In Jul–Aug (Opus 4.8 / Opus 5 / Fable 5), unweighted
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fits gave ≈ $30 per 1 % of the week. Limits and prices move with model
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launches, so re-run the script after one.
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## Pricing: the backend overstates current models
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`backend/conversations/pricing.py` predates the latest price cuts. It prices
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every Opus at $5/$25 with a flat 0.1× cache read, so Opus 5.5 ($4/$20, cache
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read $0.20) comes out ≈ 2× too high. It prices Fable 5.1 cache reads at $1.00
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(list $0.25), Sonnet 5/5.5 at $3/$15 (list $2/$10), and Haiku 5.5 at $1/$5 (list
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$0.10/$0.50). Across 2026-09-13 → 10-12 the dashboard's personal total is ≈ 1.9×
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list price. In the dashboard's own dollars, 1 % of the week ≈ $44.5 and 1 % of
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5 h ≈ $11.2.
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